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Friday, May 18, 2007

no matter the spin

in MLQ3's the Daily Dose, he wrote Club 56 but what's more interesting is the discussion in that post's comments thread, which you can find here. MLQ3 also pointed us to this link where the Philippine Daily Inquirer has been compiling a list of winning local candidates (the files are in pdf format so they're universally acceptable).

the list is extensive. i've only gone until page 15 of a 29 page document (may 17, 8:02 pm). By my count as of that page... Lakas won 46 (about 37%) out of 125 positions that i was able to count. This count is mixed from governors to congressmen to vice mayors. Kampi took 22. NPC took 14 and there were 12 seats. For those seats that are still being counted, i got the one with the highest number of votes and credited it to their party, even if the counts are too close to call (like Pampanga which i counted for the independents).

This count is by far not scientific. we can probably figure things out better once the dust has properly settled. For our immediate intents and purposes this serves us for now.

As Mrs. Arroyo counts Lakas as her allies. Even in seats where it is only Lakas v. Kampi--- the victor of course is technically part of her camp.

In fights like Recto v. Sanchez in Batangas--- where Recto is Lakas and Sanchez is Kampi, we can't really say national issue trumps local. Sanchez's Vice Governor running mate won. So was it a matter of performance or machinery?

With so many Lakas in the local level--- technically speaking she didn't lie that her allies "won". Neither can we truly color it "her victory". How come?
  • We've yet to determine how far her grip is on the Lakas side. Will they shift as opportunity shifts?
  • Is Lakas, by having an alliance with Kampi, does it in fact have their own agenda? Are they merely sitting on their own side of the fence and bidding their time?
  • Will pGMA raid the Lakas ranks and if she does, would she be successful?
  • In contested races where the Administration positioned itself to go head-to-head like in Makati, in Manila, in General Santos--- they've lost.
  • Yet when you look at Cayatano and how his race was shaping up--- does a possible defeat for him mean being anti-arroyo wasn't that high on the priority list and that agenda and capability is valued much higher by the electorate? Does that in fact bode ill for any impeachment attempt and that our people quite prefer the Opposition do more productive things with their time? Perhaps we can look at it from another perspective: in his case, the first family's weight just proved to be more than the senator-aspirant could stand against?
  • In Pampanga, the President's hometown, her allies as of the Inquirer's posting were down against Independent Ed Panlilio, the former Roman Catholic priest. though one can argue it is too close to call, but the fact is: it shouldn't be. Even if Panlilio loses, it still is a tarnish against the President. perhaps it would have been wiser to field only one candidate?
  • There is of course the Administration defeat in the Senate, which is a huge deal as pointed out in that Daily Dose thread. The fact that guys like Trillanes are on the rise--- and he's someone without machinery, nor was he able to campaign hardly, what is that telling us?
  • And if guys like Joker Arroyo do come back, he's not exactly that friendly with the Palace folk either.
  • Neither can you say this is a win for Estrada--- Sotto, Oreta and their ilk are taking a beating.
How do all of these fit in the grand scale of things?

What is increasingly important is the President's and Kampi's relationship is with Lakas. Because if you subscribe to sheer number of wins this election: Lakas is king.

The dust hasn't settled in yet. We'll see the bigger picture soon enough. One thing for certain that is shaping up as pointed out by Manuelbuncamante and MLQ3 in that excellent Club 56 thread: it isn't as bright and cheery as pGMA would like it to be, no matter the spin.